Science Friday

So much science, so little time. Here are some interesting bits from the past week.

A couple of hopeful items on the infectious-disease front. The Lancet reports on the clinical trial of a malaria vaccine in Mozambique, involving 2022 children between 1 and 4 years of age; the vaccine apparently reduced the odds of developing the disease by 30% relative to controls. And from Science comes news of an experimental drug that can block transmission between male and female monkeys of simian HIV, the monkey cousin of the human AIDS-causing virus HIV. The drug apparently works by binding to receptors on the surface of vaginal cells and thereby making those receptors, which the virus uses as an entry point, unavailable. The ultimate result could be some sort of topical agent to protect humans from AIDS transmission -- though there is "still a lot of work to be done," according to the study's lead scientist.

A 25-year-old quadriplegic, his brain outfitted with a tiny chip that can interact with a hundred neurons at a time, has been able to perform tasks including sending e-mail and playing Pong using only his thoughts. It's part of a trial of a device called BrainGate, developed by the Foxborough, Massachusetts, firm Cyberkinetics. USA Today and news@Nature.com have more.

A new study published online at Science suggests a troubled future for the world's amphibians. The study -- the fruit of the Global Amphibian Assessment, an effort involving some 500 scientists -- concludes that almost a third of the world's 5,743 known amphibian species are at risk of extinction. And amphibians, according to the researchers, are the "canaries in the coal mine": the health of amphibian communities is a sensitive indicator of the health of the wider environment. The decline in these amphibians reflects a variety of factors: climate-induced drought, habitat destruction, disease, and overharvesting of some species for food. The BBC and news@Nature.com have more.

On the stem cell front, France has removed a final legal hurdle on the study of human embryonic stem cells (ESCs), while the Swiss will vote next month in a referendum on whether to allow an ESC law now on the books to actually take effect. And the U.N. is gearing up once again to debate an international convention against human reproductive cloning, with the outcome apparently too close to call.

And lots of other interesting stuff.

. . .

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Environmentus Absconditus

It is curious -- and a bit alarming -- how absent discussion of environmental issues has been from this presidential campaign. Although the environment is arguably a global (and, thus, a foreign policy) issue, I think most Americans tend to view it as part of "domestic" policy, reserving the foreign-policy descriptor for questions of warfare and statecraft. Yet at last night's debate, ostensibly focused though it was on domestic issues, barely a word was whispered about environmental policy -- even as we face some of the profoundest choices on this front in human history.

Coincidentally, a few hours before the debate, I attended a very brief but instructive talk on one corner of the climate-science discourse, where some issues of demonstrable political importance did come up. One of the scientists in the spotlight presented highlights of some recently published research on long-term patterns of drought in the area that's now the western United States. Looking at tree-ring data over the past 1,200 years, the work documented a widespread "megadrought" in this area from A.D. 900 to A.D. 1300, during the so-called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) -- followed by generally moist conditions until the late 1990s, when the current western U.S. drought began. This latter drought, though of comparatively short duration and low severity thus far relative to those of the MWP, has been the severest seen in this area in some time, and represents a departure from the comparatively moist conditions that have prevailed there since the end of the MWP.

This talk was follwed by remarks from a well-known climate modeler, who pointed out that the drought in the western U.S. during the MWP could be plausibly modeled as the result of changes in the Pacific Ocean El Niño/La Niña pattern as a result of higher temperatures (probably due to the long-term solar cycle during the MWP). And, he noted, if the current global warming has the same effect on those patterns as may have been seen in the MWP, the warming could be shifting the western U.S. into a period of sustained long-term aridity. This has a number of interesting political implications, as the climate modeler noted in informal conversation afterward. For one, most of the current water-sharing and water-rights agreements in the American Southwest were forged in the early to middle 20th century -- which, according to the long-term tree ring record, was a period of comparative moisture in the region. Given the interstate squabbling and bad feelings over water that has increasingly characterized the region, one can only imagine the consequences of a warming-induced shift into long-term drought for this area of domestic policy.

Considerations like these take on some extra resonance in light of the unprecedented rise in carbon dioxide, one of the most important greenhouse gases, that scientists have documented over the past two years. Whereas the "background" growth rate of carbon dioxide has been fairly steady over the past several decades, at 1.5 parts per million (ppm) per year, the rate suddenly accelerated to more than 2 ppm per year in 2002 and 2003. It is always dangerous to extrapolate climate trends from a few years' data, of course, and some researchers have pointed out that the rise could be due to transient factors such as an increased number of Northern Hemisphere forest fires, which in turn might have reduced the global carbon sink. But others have warned darkly that, at worst, the higher CO₂ levels could be the first signs that the carbon sink itself is getting saturated -- which would pave the way for the much-feared "runaway greenhouse effect."

Which, of course, brings us back to politics, and the shameful failure of the U.S. to honor the Kyoto protocol. Additional years of monitoring will be necessary before we know whether the acceleration in CO₂ levels is merely a two-year anomaly or something more foreboding. But if it's the latter, America's lack on leadership on this issue will deserve to be seen as one of the most abysmal global policy and domestic policy failures in our country's history.

And yet it's apparently not an election issue. Amazing.

. . .

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Off Topic, But . . .

. . . allow me to share a lovely quote from A. A. Milne (passed on to me by my wife), on the subject of one of the favorite books of my youth:

One does not argue about The Wind in the Willows. The young man gives it to the girl with whom he is in love, and, if she does not like it, asks her to return his letters. The older man tries it on his nephew, and alters his will accordingly. The book is a test of character. We can't criticize it, because it is criticizing us. But I must give you one word of warning. When you sit down to it, don't be so ridiculous as to suppose that you are sitting in judgment on my taste, or on the art of Kenneth Grahame. You are merely sitting in judgment on yourself. You may be worthy: I don't know, But it is you who are on trial.

Thanks for that one, Mrs. Ahab.

Dive, Dive, Dive

We sometimes wonder "how low the Republicans will sink" in their quest to hold onto power. But maybe that's too passive a metaphor. No -- the Republican political bathyscaph continues not just to sink, but to dive, dive, dive, actively seeking the bottom. And just when we think they've found it, they stumble across a new Marianas trench of sleaze to explore.

Here's a prime candidate for Political Low Point of the Week (ah, but there are so many): A firm with the Orwellian name of Voter Outreach of America (VOA) has been actively working to register voters in the Las Vegas area -- and then shredding the registration documents of hundreds or possibly thousands of the same potential voters before their registrations are recorded. Thus these voters, who believe that they're registered, will be surprised to find out that they're not registered come Election Day -- when it's too late to do anything about it.

Now why in the world would VOA do such a thing?

Oh, I see. They were only shredding the registration documents of Democrats. (And oh, yes -- this firm was also retained by the G.O.P. to help put Nader on the ballot in Arizona, no doubt for the purest of reasons.)

. . .

Carve out your place in history! Enter the Dump Bush Pumpkin-Carving Contest.

The "Dump Bush" Pumpkin-Carving Contest

Sharpen your wits, creativity, and that old set of Ginsu knives. It's time for the First and (we ardently hope) Last Annual Online "Dump Bush" Pumpkin Carving Contest (FALAODBPCC).

Spurred by the near-simultaneity of two uniquely American events -- the annual Trick-or-Treat fest on 31 October, and the Most Important Election Of Our Lifetimes on 2 November -- and taking advantage of the creative resources of the blogosphere's tens of thousands of pajama-clad pundits, the FALAODBPCC seeks, quite simply, the Jack-O-Lantern that most convincingly, creatively, and engagingly conveys the message "Dump Bush!"

The Categories. Entries will be accepted in two categories:

Pulpy-Palms Division (PPD). The entries in this division will be snapshots of real, honest-to-God physical pumpkins, lovingly carved with their own anti-Bush messages. Entries will be judged on overall creativity, clarity of presentation, carving skill, and (to a lesser extent) internal-illumination concept. Pictorial, verbal, and mixed treatments will all be considered.

Hyperreality Division (HD). Raw pumpkin, as all are aware, is an unforgiving medium. For those who lack the requisite cutlery skills, but who still wish to participate, the Hyperreality Division award was created for Photoshopped or otherwise "enhanced" pumpkin images that carry an anti-Bush theme. Entries in this category will be judged on creative use of the electronic medium, power of political message, and how obvious the little squiggly lines are where you pasted stuff into the background.

[Note: If your entry straddles the line between these two divisions -- say, a picture of a pumpkin you've carved, Photoshopped to increase its political or emotional impact -- please enter it in whatever division you think best captures the spirit of the entry. I would tend to think that even a Photoshop-enhanced rendering of a pumpkin you actually carved would more likely belong in the PPD rather than the HD. But use your own judgment.]

The Rules. The rules for this competition, such as they are, are relatively simple:

1. Keep it clean. As satisfying as it would be to explore certain adult themes (and, where Bush is concerned, one orifice in particular comes to mind), we'd like to keep the entries at a PG or G level.
2. No excessive gore or violence. Entries in the Hyperreality Division in particular should endeavor to avoid anything too graphic.
3. No "Bush = Nazi" themes or similar inflammatory material. We don't want to give Karl Rove even the smallest excuse to portray President Hissy Fit as a victim.
4. Enter at own risk. Know your own skills and limitations in this dangerous work. Ahab cannot take responsibility for severed fingers, arterial bleeding, brain concussions, black hairy tongue, insanity, carpal-tunnel syndrome, or any other injuries or ailments that result from participation in the FALAODBPCC.
5. All decisions final. Entries will be evaluated by our distinguished panel of judges (basically Ahab and Mrs. Ahab, with the nonbinding input of our two proudly Bush-hating offspring). Complaints are likely to be met with a sepulchral silence.
6. Contestants retain all rights to their images. Ahab asks only for the privilege of posting the entries of the winner, second-place finisher, and honorable mentions on Personal Effects.
7. Although the emphasis is on anti-Bush pumpkins, pro-Kerry treatments are also welcome.

How to Enter. To enter the contest, please follow these simple instructions:

1. Create your pumpkin, following the rules outlined above.
2. Post a GIF or JPEG image of your pumpkin on a publicly accessible Web site. Be sure that your pumpkin image stays at this address at least through the election and, preferably, through the post-election litigation period.
3. Send the address of the pumpkin image to dumpbushpumpkin@yahoo.com. Please do not send the image file itself -- only the publicly available address of that file (sorry -- we can't provide bandwidth for images). Important: Please include the category you're submitting your entry to in both the body of the E-mail and in the subject line. In the latter, use the abbreviation "PPD" for the Pulpy-Palms Division and "HD" for the Hyperreality Division.
4. Optional gloss. For some entrants, the image will say it all. However, others may feel a perfectly understandable, very human need to explain themselves. Therefore, at the contestant's option, they may submit a brief (less than 25 words) caption for their image.
5. We would prefer entries by E-mail at the address above. If you are uncomfortable sending your entry in by E-mail, however, you can post it as a comment to this blog entry (though it's possible I won't see it there).
6. The deadline for submissions is midnight PDT on Friday, 29 October. The winners will be posted on Personal Effects on Sunday, 31 October. During the entry period -- time permitting -- we will, until we get sick of doing so, periodically post the addresses of selected entries we've received. Of course, it's possible that we won't get any entries at all, in which case we won't post any.

The Prize. The winner will have their entry displayed in the Winner's Circle here on Personal Effects on Halloween night, adorned by a spiffy (and yet to be designed) virtual blue ribbon.

What . . . you wanted more?

Sorry -- that's it. This contest is for the glory alone. And, of course, you will get the satisfaction of joining our squashroots effort to unseat the Great Pretender and bring legitimate government back to Washington. Remember -- this is a vital and close election. The right pumpkin, in the right swing state, could tip the balance and send Bush back to Crawford. Let the games begin!

[Special note to the three people who actually read this blog: Tell your friends! Who knows -- we might get as many as six entries that way . . .]

Today's Art Award

Courtesy of Jesus' General and the BBC comes the story of this beautiful work of art. Well, OK -- but you've got to admit it's at least amusing, right? The picture was slated to be installed as part of a larger exhibit at the City Museum of Washington, D.C., but was nixed after the museum found that "the exhibit was not what it had expected." (To be fair to the City Museum, a visit to its Web site suggests that the picture really is a pretty far cry from the local-historical material that's the museum's usual stock-in-trade.)

In any event, a board member of Art-O-Matic, the D.C. group that had organized the exhibit, noted that "about a dozen people may have seen it" before it was taken down. I think we owe it to America to make sure that more eyeballs find their way to this American art treasure.

The Next Front

The New York Times posts an item suggesting the front that President Hissy Fit and his advisors are likely to hit hardest in the coming weeks: The image of Kerry as a pampered, aloof Boston Brahmin, "cursed with . . . good taste" and sufficiently nervy to hang Dutch and Flemish still lifes "on the walls of [his] Boston and Washington town houses" -- versus Bush as the Real American who "likes to clear brush and go bass fishing in his spare time, a man whose indulgences are barbecue and nonalcoholic beer." Not a new tack, certainly, but one you can bet the Bushites will hit repeatedly as the more substantive rationales for voting for Bush continue to evaporate.

Sheesh.